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 delphi method


Application of Unsupervised Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Self_Organizing Map (SOM) in Identifying Main Car Sales Factors

Taghavi, Mazyar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Factors which attract customers and persuade them to buy new car are various regarding different consumer tastes. There are some methods to extract pattern form mass data. In this case we firstly asked passenger car marketing experts to rank more important factors which affect customer decision making behavior using fuzzy Delphi technique, then we provided a sample set from questionnaires and tried to apply a useful artificial neural network method called selforganizing map (SOM) to find out which factors have more effect on Iranian customer's buying decision making. Fuzzy tools were applied to adjust the study to be more real. MATLAB software was used for developing and training network. Results report four factors are more important rather than the others. Results are rather different from marketing expert rankings. Such results would help manufacturers to focus on more important factors and increase company sales level.


Teranga Go!: Carpooling Collaborative Consumption Community with multi-criteria hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set opinions to build confidence and trust

Montes, Rosana, Sanchez, Ana M., Villar, Pedro, Herrera, Francisco

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classic Delphi and Fuzzy Delphi methods are used to test content validity of a data collection tools such as questionnaires. Fuzzy Delphi takes the opinion issued by judges from a linguistic perspective reducing ambiguity in opinions by using fuzzy numbers. We propose an extension named 2-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Delphi method to deal with scenarios in which judges show different expertise degrees by using fuzzy multigranular semantics of the linguistic terms and to obtain intermediate and final results expressed by 2-tuple linguistic values. The key idea of our proposal is to validate the full questionnaire by means of the evaluation of its parts, defining the validity of each item as a Decision Making problem. Taking the opinion of experts, we measure the degree of consensus, the degree of consistency, and the linguistic score of each item, in order to detect those items that affect, positively or negatively, the quality of the instrument. Considering the real need to evaluate a b-learning educational experience with a consensual questionnaire, we present a Decision Making model for questionnaire validation that solve it. Additionally, we contribute to this consensus reaching problem by developing an online tool under GPL v3 license. The software visualizes the collective valuations for each iteration and assists to determine which parts of the questionnaire should be modified to reach a consensual solution.


Design and consensus content validity of the questionnaire for b-learning education: A 2-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Delphi based Decision Support Tool

Montes, Rosana, Zuheros, Cristina, Morales, Jeovani M., Zermeño, Noe, Duran, Jerónimo, Herrera, Francsico

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classic Delphi and Fuzzy Delphi methods are used to test content validity of data collection tools such as questionnaires. Fuzzy Delphi takes the opinion issued by judges from a linguistic perspective reducing ambiguity in opinions by using fuzzy numbers. We propose an extension named 2-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Delphi method to deal with scenarios in which judges show different expertise degrees by using fuzzy multigranular semantics of the linguistic terms and to obtain intermediate and final results expressed by 2-tuple linguistic values. The key idea of our proposal is to validate the full questionnaire by means of the evaluation of its parts, defining the validity of each item as a Decision Making problem. Taking the opinion of experts, we measure the degree of consensus, the degree of consistency, and the linguistic score of each item, in order to detect those items that affect, positively or negatively, the quality of the instrument. Considering the real need to evaluate a b-learning educational experience with a consensual questionnaire, we present a Decision Making model for questionnaire validation that solves it. Additionally, we contribute to this consensus reaching problem by developing an online tool under GPL v3 license. The software visualizes the collective valuations for each iteration and assists to determine which parts of the questionnaire should be modified to reach a consensual solution.


Artificial Intelligence and Innovation to Reduce the Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Sustainable Production

Effah, Derrick, Bai, Chunguang, Quayson, Matthew

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Frequent occurrences of extreme weather events substantially impact the lives of the less privileged in our societies, particularly in agriculture-inclined economies. The unpredictability of extreme fires, floods, drought, cyclones, and others endangers sustainable production and life on land (SDG goal 15), which translates into food insecurity and poorer populations. Fortunately, modern technologies such as Artificial Intelligent (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, 3D printing, and virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR) are promising to reduce the risk and impact of extreme weather in our societies. However, research directions on how these technologies could help reduce the impact of extreme weather are unclear. This makes it challenging to emploring digital technologies within the spheres of extreme weather. In this paper, we employed the Delphi Best Worst method and Machine learning approaches to identify and assess the push factors of technology. The BWM evaluation revealed that predictive nature was AI's most important criterion and role, while the mass-market potential was the less important criterion. Based on this outcome, we tested the predictive ability of machine elarning on a publilcly available dataset to affrm the predictive rols of AI. We presented the managerial and methodological implications of the study, which are crucial for research and practice. The methodology utilized in this study could aid decision-makers in devising strategies and interventions to safeguard sustainable production. This will also facilitate allocating scarce resources and investment in improving AI techniques to reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events. Correspondingly, we put forward the limitations of this, which necessitate future research.


Prediction of Construction Cost for Field Canals Improvement Projects in Egypt

Elmousalami, Haytham H.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are one of the ambitious projects constructed to save fresh water. To finance this project, Conceptual cost models are important to accurately predict preliminary costs at the early stages of the project. The first step is to develop a conceptual cost model to identify key cost drivers affecting the project. Therefore, input variables selection remains an important part of model development, as the poor variables selection can decrease model precision. The study discovered the most important drivers of FCIPs based on a qualitative approach and a quantitative approach. Subsequently, the study has developed a parametric cost model based on machine learning methods such as regression methods, artificial neural networks, fuzzy model and case-based reasoning.